Warnings and getting ready in Central America

The NHC has sent out tropical storm alerts for parts of Honduras and Nicaragua as Sara gets closer. The storm is expected to bring winds and rain as early as Thursday evening, and the weather will get worse on Friday. The National Hurricane Center (NHC) says that Sara could bring up to 30 inches of rain to some parts of Honduras. Other parts of Central America are expected to get double that amount of rain. “Life-threatening and potentially catastrophic flash flooding and mudslides” are more likely to happen because of the heavy rain.

The storm will also hit Belize and the Yucatán Peninsula further north. By early next week, dangerous storm waves and gusty winds could hit these areas. The government is telling people in these places to get ready for bad weather.

Possible Effects on the Eastern U.S. Coastline and the Gulf of Mexico. It’s still not clear what the storm will do to the Gulf of Mexico or if Florida, the Florida Keys, or Cuba will be in danger. Forecasters from the NHC are telling people in these places to pay close attention to updates because the outlook after this weekend is still uncertain.

There are several possible paths and levels of strength for the storm:

Hits land in Honduras: If Sara hits land in Honduras this weekend, it could get much weaker as it moves inland and loses access to the warm water that makes tropical storms stronger. Central America would get a lot of rain and strong winds in this case, but Sara might not make it to the U.S. at all, or it might get here as a weaker storm.

Brief Contact with Land: If the storm only briefly touches down on land near the coast of Central America, it could come out as a weak but whole system in the southern Gulf of Mexico. Central America would still get life-threatening weather from this path, and Belize and the Yucatán Peninsula might only get mild effects. In this case, Sara could see the U.S. as a society that is weak.

Staying Offshore: If Sara stays offshore and stays over the very warm seas of the Caribbean, it could get much worse very quickly. Central America, the Yucatán, and Belize would be at greater risk in this case, and the U.S. could face a much stronger and more worrying prediction. The Caribbean sea surface temperatures are at all-time highs right now, which could make the storm stronger.

Conditions in the Atlantic that break records. The only time the sea surface temperatures in the Caribbean were warmer was in 2023, which broke all records. These temperatures are higher than usual, even for the height of hurricane season, and they are continuing to make late-season storms stronger than normal. Warmer ocean waters caused by pollution from fossil fuels make stronger and more powerful storms more likely. Sara could take advantage of this if it stays offshore.

Satellite data that tracks sea surface temperature anomalies (places that are cooler or warmer than predicted) shows that the Atlantic as a whole is warmer than usual. After going through Central America, Sara could turn northwest and move toward the Yucatán. It could then become a much bigger storm and reach the eastern Gulf of Mexico, where it could even threaten Florida.

A rare storm in the late season. All possible outcomes are still possible, but the most recent forecast models show that Sara might get closer to the coast of Honduras than was first thought. This makes the most powerful outcome a little less likely.

What if Hurricane Sara hit land in the United States? It might be the newest hurricane to hit land in the United States. The current record is held by Hurricane Kate, a Category 2 storm that hit Florida on November 21, 1985. Five storms have already hit land along the U.S. Gulf Coast this year.

Even though the end of hurricane season is November 30, it’s important to remember that named storms have happened in December before. People in the affected areas are being asked to stay alert and ready, since this season is still hard for experts to predict.